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VARIANCE ANALYSIS Definition

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VARIANCE ANALYSIS is the analysis of performance by means of variances. Used to promote management action at the earliest possible stages. After a budget (based on standard costs) has been set, its usefulness lies in the review procedures which compare actual results against the budget. Variance analysis is the process of examining in detail each variance between actual and budgeted/expected/standard costs to determine the reasons why budgeted results were not met (material costs too high, sales prices too low, etc.).

 

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ILLIQUID is when cash flows generated by the firm are insufficient to meet the debt service. When speaking of money or an economy: being very liquid means it is driven by primarily by cash, checking/saving accounts, treasury bills, stocks and bonds, etc; while being very illiquid means it is driven primarily by human capital.

ALTMAN, EDWARD developed the "ALTMAN Z-SCORE" by examining 85 manufacturing companies. Later, additional "Z-Scores" were developed for private manufacturing companies (Z-Score - Model A) and another for general/service firms (Z-Score - Model B). VentureLine selects the "Z-Score" appropriate for each firm based upon the questionnaire input from the listing company. A "Z-Score" is only as valid as the data from which it was derived i.e. if a company has altered or falsified their financial records/books, a "Z-Score" derived from those "cooked books" is of highly suspect value.

  • ORIGINAL Z-SCORE (For Public Manufacturer) If the Z-Score is 3.0 or above - banruptcy is not likely. If the Z-Score is 1.8 or less - bankruptcy is likely. A score between 1.8 and 3.0 is the gray area. Probabilities of bankruptcy within the above ranges are 95% for one year and 70% within two years. Obviously a higher Z-Score is desirable.
  • MODEL A Z-SCORE (For Private Manufacturer) Model A is appropriated for a private manufacturing firm. Model A should not be applied to other companies. A Z-Score of 2.90 or above indicates that bankruptcy in not likely, buyt a Z-Score of 1.23 or below is a strong indicator that bankruptcy is likely. Probabilities of bankruptcy within the above ranges are 95% for one year and 70% within two years. Obviously a higher Z-Score is desirable.
  • MODEL B Z-SCORE (For Private General Firm) Model B Z-Score is appropriate for a private general non-manufacturing firm. A Z-Score of 2.60 or above indicates that bankruptcy in not likely, buyt a Z-Score of 1.10 or below is a strong indicator that bankruptcy is likely. Probabilities of bankruptcy within the above ranges are 95% for one year and 70% within two years. A Z-Score between the two is the gray area. Obviously a higher Z-Score is desirable.


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