COUNTERBALANCE Definition

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COUNTERBALANCE is a compensating equivalent or to oppose and mitigate the effects of something by contrary actions.

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FINANCIAL RISK is the possibility of whether a bond issuer will default, by failing to repay principal and/or interest in a timely manner. Usually bonds issued by the federal government, for the most part, are immune from default (if the government needs money... more is printed). Bonds issued by corporations are more probable to be defaulted on, since companies often go bankrupt. Municipalities occasionally default as well, but it is much less common. Can also be called default risk or credit risk.

ALTMAN, EDWARD developed the "ALTMAN Z-SCORE" by examining 85 manufacturing companies. Later, additional "Z-Scores" were developed for private manufacturing companies (Z-Score - Model A) and another for general/service firms (Z-Score - Model B). VentureLine selects the "Z-Score" appropriate for each firm based upon the questionnaire input from the listing company. A "Z-Score" is only as valid as the data from which it was derived i.e. if a company has altered or falsified their financial records/books, a "Z-Score" derived from those "cooked books" is of highly suspect value.

  • ORIGINAL Z-SCORE (For Public Manufacturer) If the Z-Score is 3.0 or above - banruptcy is not likely. If the Z-Score is 1.8 or less - bankruptcy is likely. A score between 1.8 and 3.0 is the gray area. Probabilities of bankruptcy within the above ranges are 95% for one year and 70% within two years. Obviously a higher Z-Score is desirable.
  • MODEL A Z-SCORE (For Private Manufacturer) Model A is appropriated for a private manufacturing firm. Model A should not be applied to other companies. A Z-Score of 2.90 or above indicates that bankruptcy in not likely, buyt a Z-Score of 1.23 or below is a strong indicator that bankruptcy is likely. Probabilities of bankruptcy within the above ranges are 95% for one year and 70% within two years. Obviously a higher Z-Score is desirable.
  • MODEL B Z-SCORE (For Private General Firm) Model B Z-Score is appropriate for a private general non-manufacturing firm. A Z-Score of 2.60 or above indicates that bankruptcy in not likely, buyt a Z-Score of 1.10 or below is a strong indicator that bankruptcy is likely. Probabilities of bankruptcy within the above ranges are 95% for one year and 70% within two years. A Z-Score between the two is the gray area. Obviously a higher Z-Score is desirable.
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